Cognitive Event-Related Potentials-The P300 Wave Is a Prognostic Factor of Long-Term Disability Progression in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis

PURPOSE Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disorder with a variable course. The aim of our study was to find out whether cognitive event-related potentials are prognostic for patient disability at the 15-year follow-up. METHODS In the observed cohort of patients with MS, we examined the event-related potentials at baseline (2003). Functional status (Expanded Disability Status Scale score) was then assessed 15 years later, and the prognostic model was developed using binary logistic regression analysis. The independent variables included demographic (age, sex, and education), clinical (disability in 2003), radiologic (MRI lesion load), and event-related potentials parameters. The prognostic accuracy of the proposed model was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve. RESULTS The study sample consisted of 85 patients with MS. The mean age was 35.5 (SD, 11.2) years, and the median disability score was 3.0 (1-7) in 2003 and 5.0 (1.5-9.5) in 2018. The significant prognostic factors of poor Expanded Disability Status Scale are higher baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale, longer MS duration, and prolonged P300 latency. The sensitivity and specificity of the cutoff at 5.0 for the disability score were 94% and 89%, respectively, with the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.889-0.984; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The results show that out of event-related potentials, the P300 wave latency is a prognostic of long-term disability progression in patients with MS.