Back to Search
Start Over
Evaluation of Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Prediction of Tacrolimus Exposure Using Samples Taken on Two Occasions in Adult Kidney Transplant Recipients
- Source :
- Therapeutic Drug Monitoring. 43:238-246
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), 2021.
-
Abstract
- BACKGROUND Bayesian forecasting-based limited sampling strategies (LSSs) for tacrolimus have not been evaluated for the prediction of subsequent tacrolimus exposure. This study examined the predictive performance of Bayesian forecasting programs/services for the estimation of future tacrolimus area under the curve (AUC) from 0 to 12 hours (AUC0-12) in kidney transplant recipients. METHODS Tacrolimus concentrations were measured in 20 adult kidney transplant recipients, 1 month post-transplant, on 2 occasions one week apart. Twelve samples were taken predose and 13 samples were taken postdose at the specified times on the first and second sampling occasions, respectively. The predicted AUC0-12 (AUCpredicted) was estimated using Bayesian forecasting programs/services and data from both sampling occasions for each patient and compared with the fully measured AUC0-12 (AUCmeasured) calculated using the linear trapezoidal rule on the second sampling occasion. The bias (median percentage prediction error [MPPE]) and imprecision (median absolute prediction error [MAPE]) were determined. RESULTS Three programs/services were evaluated using different LSSs (C0; C0, C1, C3; C0, C1, C2, C4; and all available concentrations). MPPE and MAPE for the prediction of fully measured AUC0-12 were
- Subjects :
- Adult
Mean squared prediction error
Bayesian probability
030226 pharmacology & pharmacy
Kidney transplant
Tacrolimus
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Statistics
Limited sampling
Humans
Medicine
Pharmacology (medical)
Pharmacology
business.industry
Area under the curve
Sampling (statistics)
Bayes Theorem
Kidney Transplantation
Transplant Recipients
surgical procedures, operative
Area Under Curve
Tacrolimus Dose
Drug Monitoring
business
Immunosuppressive Agents
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 01634356
- Volume :
- 43
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Therapeutic Drug Monitoring
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....60d38d155b1d2d51528bcdcac15565e2