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Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics
- Source :
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 18, Iss 3055, p 3055 (2021), Volume 18, Issue 6
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- MDPI, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regarding the emergence of historic influenzas, early COVID-19 cases and spreading, the microbiome of permafrost, long-distance airborne transport of viruses reaching stratospheric levels, ultraviolet immunosuppression, sunlight variations, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming. Atmospheric conveyance is supported by hemispheric distribution disparities, ties of COVID-19 cases to air pollution particulate concentrations, and contemporaneous animal infections. The following sequence is proposed: (1) virus emergence after hot Arctic summers, predominantly near solar irradiance maxima or involving wildfires, indicates release of large amounts of ancient viruses during extensive permafrost melting, which are then incorporated in autumn polar air circulation, where cold storage and little sunlight permit survival. (2) Pandemics onset in winter to spring at rather few locations: from climate data on Wuhan, emergence occurs where the North Polar Jet stream hovers while intersecting warmer, moist air, producing rain which deposits particulates with the viral harvest on a vulnerable human population. (3) Spring and summer increases in COVID-19 cases link to high solar irradiance, implicating ultraviolet immune suppression as one means of amplification. (4) Viruses multiplied by infected humans at close range being incorporated in atmospheric circulation explains rapid global spread, periodic case surges (waves), and multi-year durations. Pollution and wind geography affect uptake and re-distribution. Our model can be tested, e.g., against permafrost stored in laboratories as well as Artic air samples, and suggests mitigating actions.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric circulation
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Population
lcsh:Medicine
Cold storage
Permafrost
Solar irradiance
Atmospheric sciences
Article
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Influenza, Human
Animals
Humans
climate and disease
030212 general & internal medicine
education
Pandemics
030304 developmental biology
0303 health sciences
education.field_of_study
airborne transport
pandemic emergence
Arctic Regions
SARS-CoV-2
lcsh:R
Global warming
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
COVID-19
Jet stream
environment and health
Coronavirus
Arctic
Sunlight
permafrost melting
ultraviolet immunosuppression
historic influenzas
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16604601 and 16617827
- Volume :
- 18
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....6139b2f9acb67903380dc5d714c57020