The ‘red supergiant problem’: the upper luminosity boundary of Type II supernova progenitors

By comparing the properties of Red Supergiant (RSG) supernova progenitors to those of field RSGs, it has been claimed that there is an absence of progenitors with luminosities $L$ above $\log(L/L_\odot) > 5.2$. This is in tension with the empirical upper luminosity limit of RSGs at $\log(L/L_\odot) = 5.5$, a result known as the `Red Supergiant Problem'. This has been interpreted as evidence for an upper mass threshold for the formation of black-holes. In this paper, we compare the observed luminosities of RSG SN progenitors with the observed RSG $L$-distribution in the Magellanic Clouds. Our results indicate that the absence of bright SN II-P/L progenitors in the current sample can be explained at least in part by the steepness of the $L$-distribution and a small sample size, and that the statistical significance of the Red Supergiant Problem is between 1-2$\sigma$ . Secondly, we model the luminosity distribution of II-P/L progenitors as a simple power-law with an upper and lower cutoff, and find an upper luminosity limit of $\log(L_{\rm hi}/L_\odot) = 5.20^{+0.17}_{-0.11}$ (68\% confidence), though this increases to $\sim$5.3 if one fixes the power-law slope to be that expected from theoretical arguments. Again, the results point to the significance of the RSG Problem being within $\sim 2 \sigma$. Under the assumption that all progenitors are the result of single-star evolution, this corresponds to an upper mass limit for the parent distribution of $M_{\rm hi} = 19.2{\rm M_\odot}$, $\pm1.3 {\rm M_\odot (systematic)}$, $^{+4.5}_{-2.3} {\rm M_\odot}$ (random) (68\% confidence limits).
Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS