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The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
- Source :
- Climate of the Past, Climate of the Past, 2020, 16 (6), pp.2095-2123. ⟨10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020⟩, Climate of the Past, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2020, 16 (6), pp.2095-2123. ⟨10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020⟩, Climate of the Past, Vol 16, Pp 2095-2123 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2020.
-
Abstract
- The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
- Subjects :
- 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
lcsh:Environmental protection
Stratigraphy
Climate change
Zonal and meridional
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
Atmospheric sciences
01 natural sciences
lcsh:Environmental pollution
Pliocene climate
lcsh:TD169-171.8
Precipitation
lcsh:Environmental sciences
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
lcsh:GE1-350
Global and Planetary Change
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category
Paleontology
13. Climate action
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology
lcsh:TD172-193.5
Polar amplification
Environmental science
Climate sensitivity
Climate model
Ice sheet
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 18149324 and 18149332
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Climate of the Past, Climate of the Past, 2020, 16 (6), pp.2095-2123. ⟨10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020⟩, Climate of the Past, European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2020, 16 (6), pp.2095-2123. ⟨10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020⟩, Climate of the Past, Vol 16, Pp 2095-2123 (2020)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....61a1f01c373f1f1884544e416aa487eb