Transitions in metabolic health status over time and risk of heart failure: A prospective study

Aims. - Evidence for the effects of metabolically healthy obese (MHO) status on heart failure (HF) is limited and ignores the dynamic change of metabolic health and obesity phenotypes. We aimed to investigate the associations of metabolic health and its transition with HF across body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) categories. Methods. - This prospective cohort study was conducted with 93,288 Chinese adults who were free of cardiovascular disease, cancer or HF at baseline (2006-2007). Metabolic health was defined as having no or only one abnormality in blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or triglyceride levels. Participants were cross-classified at baseline by metabolic health and obesity (defined by BMI and WC criteria). Transitions in metabolic health status from 2006-2007 to 2010-2011 were considered. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for HF were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results. - During a mean ± standard deviation follow-up of 9.7 ± 1.5 years, 1,628 participants developed HF. Individuals with MHO (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.45, 2.19 for BMI criteria; HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.30, 1.76 for WC criteria) had higher risk of HF than those with metabolically healthy normal weight (MH-NW). Individuals with initial MHO who shifted to metabolically unhealthy phenotype during follow-up had higher risk of HF compared with stable MH-NW individuals (HR 3.12; 95% CI: 2.01, 4.85 for BMI categories; HR 1.98; 95% CI: 1.42, 2.77 for WC categories). Even stable MHO individuals were at an increased risk of HF compared with stable MH-NW individuals (HR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.39, 3.39 for BMI categories; HR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.85 for WC categories). Conclusions. - MHO phenotype is dynamic and its transition to metabolically unhealthy phenotype or even stable MHO is associated with increased risk of HF. Maintaining metabolic health may provide a clue for preventing HF.