Prediction of long-term outcomes of HIV-infected patients developing non-AIDS events using a multistate approach

Cohorte de la Red de InvestigacioÂn en Sida (CoRIS).
[Objetives] Outcomes of people living with HIV (PLWH) developing non-AIDS events (NAEs) remain poorly defined. We aimed to classify NAEs according to severity, and to describe clinical outcomes and prognostic factors after NAE occurrence using data from CoRIS, a large Spanish HIV cohort from 2004 to 2013.
[Design] Prospective multicenter cohort study.
[Methods] Using a multistate approach we estimated 3 transition probabilities: from alive and NAE-free to alive and NAE-experienced (“NAE development”); from alive and NAE-experienced to death (“Death after NAE”); and from alive and NAE-free to death (“Death without NAE”). We analyzed the effect of different covariates, including demographic, immunologic and virologic data, on death or NAE development, based on estimates of hazard ratios (HR). We focused on the transition “Death after NAE”.
[Results] 8,789 PLWH were followed-up until death, cohort censoring or loss to follow-up. 792 first incident NAEs occurred in 9.01% PLWH (incidence rate 28.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.80–30.84, per 1000 patient-years). 112 (14.14%) NAE-experienced PLWH and 240 (2.73%) NAE-free PLWH died. Adjusted HR for the transition “Death after NAE” was 12.1 (95%CI, 4.90–29.89). There was a graded increase in the adjusted HRs for mortality according to NAE severity category: HR (95%CI), 4.02 (2.45–6.57) for intermediate-severity; and 9.85 (5.45–17.81) for serious NAEs compared to low-severity NAEs. Male sex (HR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.11–3.84), age>50 years (1.78, 1.08–2.94), hepatitis C-coinfection (2.52, 1.38–4.61), lower CD4 cell count at cohort entry (HR 2.49; 95%CI 1.20–5.14 for CD4 cell count below 200 and HR 2.16; 95%CI 1.01–4.66 for CD4 cell count between 200–350, both compared to CD4 cell count higher than 500) and concomitant CD4
[Conclusion] NAEs, including low-severity events, increase prominently the risk for mortality in PLWH. Prognostic factors differ between NAE-experienced and NAE-free persons. These findings should be taken into account in the clinical management of PLWH developing NAEs and may permit more targeted prevention efforts.
This work was supported by the RD12/0017/0023 and RD 16/0025/0038 projects as part of the Plan Nacional R + D + I and cofinanced by ISCIII- Subdirección General de Evaluación y el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER), FIS (PI08/893), FIS (PI13/02256), FIS (PI16/01740), FISABIO UGP-14-197, Contrato de Intensificación de la Actividad Investigadora INT 14/00207, Contrato Predoctotal FISABIO 2015 (UGP-15-152) and Contrato Río Hortega (CM15/00187).