External validation of a prediction model for estimating fat mass in children and adolescents in 19 countries: individual participant data meta-analysis

Peer reviewed: True
Acknowledgements: We thank John Reilly for his advice on data sources and data access; Cara L Eckhardt, Josephine Avila, Igor Y Kon, and Jinzhong Wang from the Eckhardt et al study23; and all staff involved in recruitment and data collection from the included studies. Data gathered from South Africa was supported by South Africa Medical Research Council and National Research Foundation.
Objective To evaluate the performance of a UK based prediction model for estimating fat-free mass (and indirectly fat mass) in children and adolescents in non-UK settings. Design Individual participant data meta-analysis. Setting 19 countries. Participants 5693 children and adolescents (49.7% boys) aged 4 to 15 years with complete data on the predictors included in the UK based model (weight, height, age, sex, and ethnicity) and on the independently assessed outcome measure (fat-free mass determined by deuterium dilution assessment). Main outcome measures The outcome of the UK based prediction model was natural log transformed fat-free mass (lnFFM). Predictive performance statistics of R2 , calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and root mean square error were assessed in each of the 19 countries and then pooled through random effects meta-analysis. Calibration plots were also derived for each country, including flexible calibration curves. Results The model showed good predictive ability in non-UK populations of children and adolescents, providing R2 values of >75% in all countries and >90% in 11 of the 19 countries, and with good calibration (ie, agreement) of observed and predicted values. Root mean square error values (on fat-free mass scale) were