Long-term Risk of Recurrence in Surgically Treated Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group—American College of Radiology Imaging Network E2805 Trial Cohort

Currently, surveillance guidelines following surgical resection of clinically localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are clear within the first 5 yr; however, these lack the same degree of objectivity following this cutoff. We sought to investigate the long-term risk of recurrence in surgically treated RCC in order to determine the utility of long-term surveillance. A post hoc analysis of patients within the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group—American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ECOG-ACRIN) E2805 trial cohort was performed. The 36-mo cumulative incidence of recurrence was assessed at set intervals following surgery, in order to dynamically assess recurrence through the use of a conditional survival model. Of the 1943 patients included in the original cohort, 730 developed recurrence. The 36-mo cumulative incidences of recurrence were found to be 31%, 26%, 19%, 16%, 19%, and 20% for patients at 0, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 mo from surgery, respectively. At 0 mo from surgery, age, pathological T3/4 stage (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56), pathological N1/2 stage (HR = 2.38), and Fuhrman grades 3 and 4 (HR = 1.36 and HR = 2.41, respectively) were independent predictors of recurrence; however, this was not seen at 60 mo following surgery. These findings support that surveillance imaging should be performed beyond 5 yr following surgical resection of intermediate- to high-risk RCC. Patient summary : Follow-up for surgically resected localized renal cell carcinoma should be performed beyond 5 yr, for the rates of recurrence remain significant beyond this 5 yr endpoint.