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Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 10, p e0165423 (2016), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2016.
-
Abstract
- In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate
Normal Distribution
lcsh:Medicine
Wind
02 engineering and technology
01 natural sciences
Geographical locations
Physics - Geophysics
Climate change scenario
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
lcsh:Science
Wind Power
Climatology
Multidisciplinary
Wind power
Surface Temperature
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Offshore wind power
Physical Sciences
Engineering and Technology
Alternative Energy
Research Article
Risk
Meteorology
Surface Properties
Climate Change
020209 energy
Materials Science
Material Properties
FOS: Physical sciences
Climate change
Density of air
Mexico
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
business.industry
lcsh:R
Models, Theoretical
Transient climate simulation
Probability Theory
Probability Distribution
Geophysics (physics.geo-ph)
Energy and Power
North America
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)
Earth Sciences
Alternative energy
Environmental science
lcsh:Q
Climate model
People and places
business
Mathematics
Climate Modeling
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLOS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....64a8b42375e6726ae97acb095e3bbf0c