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Personalized glucose forecasting for type 2 diabetes using data assimilation
- Source :
- PLoS Computational Biology, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 13, Iss 4, p e1005232 (2017)
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science, 2017.
-
Abstract
- Type 2 diabetes leads to premature death and reduced quality of life for 8% of Americans. Nutrition management is critical to maintaining glycemic control, yet it is difficult to achieve due to the high individual differences in glycemic response to nutrition. Anticipating glycemic impact of different meals can be challenging not only for individuals with diabetes, but also for expert diabetes educators. Personalized computational models that can accurately forecast an impact of a given meal on an individual’s blood glucose levels can serve as the engine for a new generation of decision support tools for individuals with diabetes. However, to be useful in practice, these computational engines need to generate accurate forecasts based on limited datasets consistent with typical self-monitoring practices of individuals with type 2 diabetes. This paper uses three forecasting machines: (i) data assimilation, a technique borrowed from atmospheric physics and engineering that uses Bayesian modeling to infuse data with human knowledge represented in a mechanistic model, to generate real-time, personalized, adaptable glucose forecasts; (ii) model averaging of data assimilation output; and (iii) dynamical Gaussian process model regression. The proposed data assimilation machine, the primary focus of the paper, uses a modified dual unscented Kalman filter to estimate states and parameters, personalizing the mechanistic models. Model selection is used to make a personalized model selection for the individual and their measurement characteristics. The data assimilation forecasts are empirically evaluated against actual postprandial glucose measurements captured by individuals with type 2 diabetes, and against predictions generated by experienced diabetes educators after reviewing a set of historical nutritional records and glucose measurements for the same individual. The evaluation suggests that the data assimilation forecasts compare well with specific glucose measurements and match or exceed in accuracy expert forecasts. We conclude by examining ways to present predictions as forecast-derived range quantities and evaluate the comparative advantages of these ranges.<br />Author summary Type 2 diabetes is a devastating disease that requires constant patient self-management of glucose, insulin, nutrition and exercise. Nevertheless, glucose and insulin dynamics are complicated, nonstationary, nonlinear, and individual-dependent, making self-management of diabetes a complex task. To help alleviate some of the difficulty for patients, we develop a method for personalized, real-time, glucose forecasting based on nutrition. Specifically, we create and evaluate the computational machinery based on both Gaussian process models and data assimilation that leverages the physiologic knowledge of two mechanistic models to produce a personalized, nutrition-based glucose forecast for individuals with type 2 diabetes in real time that is robust to sparse data and nonstationary patients. Our computational engine was conceived to be of potential use for diabetes self-management.
- Subjects :
- Blood Glucose
Male
Patient-Specific Modeling
Computer science
Physiology
computer.software_genre
Biochemistry
0302 clinical medicine
Data assimilation
Endocrinology
Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
Medicine and Health Sciences
Diabetes diagnosis and management
Insulin
030212 general & internal medicine
lcsh:QH301-705.5
Computational model
Ecology
Organic Compounds
Monosaccharides
Non-insulin-dependent diabetes--Nutritional aspects
Regression
Blood Sugar
3. Good health
Type 2 Diabetes
Body Fluids
Chemistry
Blood
Computational Theory and Mathematics
Modeling and Simulation
Physical Sciences
Female
Anatomy
Algorithms
Statistics (Mathematics)
Research Article
Adult
HbA1c
Endocrine Disorders
Carbohydrates
030209 endocrinology & metabolism
Bayesian inference
Machine learning
Research and Analysis Methods
03 medical and health sciences
Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
Genetics
Diabetes Mellitus
Humans
Hemoglobin
Statistical Methods
Molecular Biology
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Simulation
Glycemic
Nutrition
Biology and life sciences
business.industry
Model selection
Organic Chemistry
Chemical Compounds
Correction
Computational Biology
Proteins
Kalman filter
Diagnostic medicine
Glucose
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
lcsh:Biology (General)
Metabolic Disorders
Artificial intelligence
business
computer
Mathematics
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15537358 and 1553734X
- Volume :
- 13
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS Computational Biology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....6733a0d4a34fd5b2cff27c6fa44c8142