Global reset: COVID-19, systemic rivalry and the global order

The rise of China was closely associated with the strategic opportunity offered by a wave of globalization dating from the 1970s. As China grew, western growth was not restored. Soon after the arrival of the unipolar moment with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world confronted a succession of crises that western countries struggled to handle and will lead to a shift in the centre of economic gravity to Asia and a multipolar world. In this world in which China's continuing rise was already perceived as a strategic challenge, the COVID-19 pandemic saw further examples of liberal capitalist governance failure. Notwithstanding attempts to preserve western hegemony and a western liberal world order, the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate and intensify the trends towards a global reset, the arrival of a multipolar world and new global development paths.
Highlights • Analysis of the reasons for the conflict between the United States and China, examining productivity growth, productive investment and technology, financialization, international trade and de-dollarization • Analysis of the relative success of liberal and meritocratic governance systems in handing the impacts of COVID-19 and responding to economic crisis • Identifying forces leading to a transformation from a unipolar to a polycentric or multipolar global order. • Identification of the need for international co-operation