Submerged Vegetation Responses to Climate Variation and Altered Hydrology in a Subtropical Estuary: Interpreting 33 Years of Change

Links between hydrologic modifications, flow and salinity regimes, and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) species composition and abundance were assessed with an empirical analysis of 33 years of monitoring data collected at nine sites in Florida’s Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE). Freshwater inflows to the estuary (30-day means) were often outside the previously recommended envelope of 12.74 to 79.29 m3 s−1. Discharges from Lake Okeechobee through a synthetic hydrologic link were responsible for 43% of the above-envelope flows, but reduced the incidence of below-envelope flows by 30%. A salinity model and salinity stress indices developed for each SAV species indicated that the observed flows generated variable salinity conditions likely to harm both seagrasses and freshwater SAV in the estuary. Regression modeling of SAV abundance generally confirmed the flow and salinity responses expected for each species: Halodule wrightii and Thalassia testudinum in the lower estuary were both harmed by high-flow, low-salinity conditions, while Vallisneria americana in the upper estuary was decimated by low-flow, high-salinity conditions. There was a species-specific effect of the seasonal timing of high flows—T. testudinum was more negatively correlated with high flows in the dry season; H. wrightii in the wet season. The regression analyses also highlighted strong, year-to-year autocorrelations in SAV abundance, indicating reduced resilience after severe losses, particularly for V. americana. Large residual variation in some regression models suggested that factors other than salinity (e.g., optical water quality or grazing impacts) may also influence the system dynamics and should be incorporated in continuing research. This analysis suggests that use of artificial water management infrastructure to reduce extreme high and low flows to the Caloosahatchee and other estuaries could help maintain SAV health in light of intensifying climate variability and degraded watershed flow regulation capacity.