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Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt
- Source :
- Journal of Experimental Botany
- Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- Highlight Over the last decades, the impact of post-heading frost on yield has increased in major parts of the Australian wheatbelt. Despite global warming, frost remains a high priority for breeding.<br />Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20% through (i) reduced frost damage (~10% improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10% improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.
- Subjects :
- Genotype
post-head-emergence frost
Physiology
Yield (finance)
Climate change
Plant Science
Breeding
Crop
wheat
Freezing
Computer Simulation
Cultivar
Triticum
General Environmental Science
Ecotype
Geography
Crop yield
Global warming
Australia
Sowing
spring radiant frost
Ideotype
Adaptation, Physiological
eye diseases
ideotype
climate change
Agronomy
reproductive frost
Climatology
post-head emergence frost
Frost
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
Frost (temperature)
Spatial variability
Seasons
crop adaptation
crop modelling
South eastern
Research Paper
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 14602431
- Volume :
- 66
- Issue :
- 12
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of experimental botany
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....7015dd41c0c576a40f078b7b2b9f4382