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A Scan Statistic for Binary Outcome Based on Hypergeometric Probability Model, with an Application to Detecting Spatial Clusters of Japanese Encephalitis
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, Vol 8, Iss 6, p e65419 (2013), PLoS ONE
- Publication Year :
- 2013
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2013.
-
Abstract
- As a useful tool for geographical cluster detection of events, the spatial scan statistic is widely applied in many fields and plays an increasingly important role. The classic version of the spatial scan statistic for the binary outcome is developed by Kulldorff, based on the Bernoulli or the Poisson probability model. In this paper, we apply the Hypergeometric probability model to construct the likelihood function under the null hypothesis. Compared with existing methods, the likelihood function under the null hypothesis is an alternative and indirect method to identify the potential cluster, and the test statistic is the extreme value of the likelihood function. Similar with Kulldorff's methods, we adopt Monte Carlo test for the test of significance. Both methods are applied for detecting spatial clusters of Japanese encephalitis in Sichuan province, China, in 2009, and the detected clusters are identical. Through a simulation to independent benchmark data, it is indicated that the test statistic based on the Hypergeometric model outweighs Kulldorff's statistics for clusters of high population density or large size; otherwise Kulldorff's statistics are superior.
- Subjects :
- Risk
China
Spatial Epidemiology
Infectious Disease Control
Epidemiology
Scan statistic
lcsh:Medicine
Human Geography
Social and Behavioral Sciences
Bioinformatics
Poisson distribution
symbols.namesake
Bayes' theorem
Geoinformatics
Statistics
Test statistic
Humans
Computer Simulation
Encephalitis, Japanese
lcsh:Science
Probability
Statistical hypothesis testing
Physics
Spatial Analysis
Likelihood Functions
Models, Statistical
Multidisciplinary
Geography
lcsh:R
Bayes Theorem
Spatial Autocorrelation
Hypergeometric distribution
Infectious Diseases
Likelihood-ratio test
Earth Sciences
symbols
Medicine
Topography, Medical
lcsh:Q
Likelihood function
Algorithms
Research Article
Neglected Tropical Diseases
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 8
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....701d9ce4e3e8861093f0f48e98e9262e