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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy
- Source :
- PLOS ONE, 15(9):e0238678, PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 9, p e0238678 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a significant number of deaths worldwide. If the prevalence of the virus infection continues to rise, it can potentially have an impact on life expectancy. This paper provides first estimates of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on period life expectancy. Methods From the estimates of bias-adjusted age-specific case fatality rates in Hubei (China) and a range of six assumptions of prevalence rates ranging from 1% to 70%, we built a discrete-time microsimulation model that simulates the number of infected by COVID-19, the number of dying from it and the number of dying from all causes week by week for a period of one year. We applied our simulation to four broad regions: North America and Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Eastern Asia, and Sub-Saharan African. For each region, 100,000 individuals per each 5-year age group are simulated. Results At 10% prevalence rate, the loss in life expectancy at birth is likely above 1 year in North America and Europe and in Latin America and the Caribbean. In South Eastern Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa, one year lost in life expectancy corresponds to a prevalence of infection of about 15% and 25%, respectively. Given the uncertainty in fatality rates, with a prevalence of COVID-19 infections of 50% under 95% prediction intervals, life expectancy would drop by 3 to 9 years in North America and Europe, by 3 to 8 years in Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2 to 7 years in South Eastern Asia and by 1 to 4 in Sub-Saharan Africa. In all prevalence scenarios, as long as the prevalence rate of COVID-19 infection remains below 1 or 2%, COVID-19 would not affect life expectancy in a substantial manner. Interpretation In the regions with relatively high life expectancy, for a prevalence of infection threshold above 1 or 2%, the COVID-19 pandemic will break the secular trend of increasing life expectancy resulting in a decline in period life expectancy. With life expectancy being a key indicator of human development, mortality increase, especially among the vulnerable subgroups of populations would set the country back on their path of human development.
- Subjects :
- Male
Viral Diseases
Latin Americans
Pulmonology
Epidemiology
Prevalence
COVID-19
Respiratory infections
Asia
Life expectancy
Europe
Age groups
Death rates
Pandemics
030204 cardiovascular system & hematology
Global Health
Geographical Locations
Medical Conditions
0302 clinical medicine
Case fatality rate
Pandemic
Medicine and Health Sciences
Global health
Public and Occupational Health
030212 general & internal medicine
Multidisciplinary
Mortality rate
Middle Aged
Infectious Diseases
Geography
Medicine
Female
Coronavirus Infections
Research Article
Human
Adult
Death Rates
Science
Pneumonia, Viral
Developing country
Betacoronavirus
Respiratory Disorders
03 medical and health sciences
Age Distribution
Life Expectancy
Population Metrics
Humans
Computer Simulation
Developing Countries
Africa South of the Sahara
Aged
Population Biology
Coronavirus Infection
SARS-CoV-2
Biology and Life Sciences
Covid 19
Models, Theoretical
Age Groups
People and Places
Respiratory Infections
Population Groupings
Americas
Demography
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLOS ONE, 15(9):e0238678, PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 9, p e0238678 (2020)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....74fea62e61d3bde06d7f66a5b459da80