Predictors of neighborhood risk for late-stage melanoma: addressing disparities through spatial analysis and area-based measures

Minority populations have disproportionately more advanced stage melanoma and worse survival. To clarify the impact of race and ethnicity on late-stage melanoma diagnosis, we performed spatial analysis of geocoded melanoma cases diagnosed in Florida, 1999–2008, to identify geographic clusters of higher-than-expected incidence of late-stage melanoma and developed predictive models for melanoma cases in high-risk neighborhoods accounting for area-based poverty, race/ethnicity, patient insurance status, age, and gender. In the adjusted model, Hispanic ethnicity and census tract-level poverty are the strongest predictors for clustering of late-stage melanoma. Hispanic whites were 43% more likely to live in neighborhoods with excessive late-stage melanoma (P