On the number of monotone sequences

One of the most classical results in Ramsey theory is the theorem of Erd\H{o}s and Szekeres from 1935, which says that every sequence of more than $k^2$ numbers contains a monotone subsequence of length $k+1$. We address the following natural question motivated by this result: Given integers $k$ and $n$ with $n \geq k^2+1$, how many monotone subsequences of length $k+1$ must every sequence of $n$ numbers contain? We answer this question precisely for all sufficiently large $k$ and $n \leq k^2 + c k^{3/2} / \log k$, where $c$ is some absolute positive constant.
Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures