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An inconsistency in aviation emissions between CMIP5 and CMIP6 and the implications for short-lived species and their radiative forcing

Authors :
Thor, Robin Niclas
Mertens, Mariano
Matthes, Sigrun
Righi, Mattia
Hendricks, Johannes
Brinkop, Sabine
Graf, Phoebe
Grewe, Volker
Jöckel, Patrick
Smith, Steven
Source :
Geoscientific Model Development, 16(5)
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
Copernicus GmbH, 2023.

Abstract

We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between the data products of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Emissions in the CMIP6 data occur at higher latitudes than in the CMIP5 data for all scenarios, years, and emitted species. A comparative simulation with the chemistry–climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) reveals that the difference in nitrogen oxide emission distribution leads to reduced overall ozone changes due to aviation in the CMIP6 scenarios because in those scenarios the distribution of emissions is partly shifted towards the chemically less active higher latitudes. The radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6 % higher, and the decrease in methane lifetime is 5.7 % larger for the year 2015 when using the CMIP5 latitudinal distribution of emissions compared to when using the CMIP6 distribution. We do not find a statistically significant difference in the radiative forcing associated with aviation aerosol emissions. In total, future studies investigating the effects of aviation emissions on ozone and climate should consider the inconsistency reported here.

Details

ISSN :
19919603 and 1991959X
Volume :
16
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Geoscientific Model Development
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....7fb3fbad1429587a473cdf1865b70bf5
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1459-2023