The thermal signature of Aso Volcano during unrest episodes detected from space and ground-based measurements

The thermal signature of Aso Volcano (Nakadake) during unrest episodes has been analyzed by combining the MODIS-MIROVA data set (2000–2017) with high-resolution images (LANDSAT 8 OLI and Sentinel 2) and ground-based thermal observations (2013–2017). The site of major activity (crater 1) is located at the summit of the volcano and is composed by a fumarole field (located in the South Area) and an acidic lake (replaced by a Central Pit during Strombolian phases). The volcanic radiative power (VRP) obtained by nighttime satellite data during the reference period was mainly below 3 MW. This thermal threshold marks the transition from high fumarole activity (HFA) to Strombolian eruptions (SE). However, periods characterized by sporadic phreatic eruptions (PE, eventually bearing phreatomagmatic episodes), which is the prevalent phase during unrest episodes, exhibit very low VRP values, being around 0.5 MW, or below. The statistical analysis of satellite data shows that the transition from HFA to Strombolian activity (which started on August 2014 and ceased in May 2015) occurs when VRP values are above the cited 3 MW threshold. In particular during marked Strombolian phases (November–December 2014), the radiative power was higher than 4 MW, reaching peak values up to 15.6 MW (on December 7, 2014, i.e., 10 days after the major Strombolian explosion of November 27). Conversely, ground-based measurements show that heat fluxes recorded by FLIR T440 Thermo-camera on the fumarole field of the South Area has been relatively stable around 2 MW until February 2015. Their apparent temperatures were fluctuating around 490–575 °C before the major Strombolian explosive event, whereas those recorded at the active vent, named Central Pit, reached their maxima slightly above 600 °C; then both exhibited a decreasing trend in the following days. During the Strombolian activity, the crater lake dried out and was then replenished by early July, 2016. Then, volcanic activity shifted back to phreatic–phreatomagmatic and the eruptive cycle was completed. During this period, the MIROVA system detected very few thermal alerts and the ground-based measurements were fluctuating around 1 MW. The most violent explosion occurred on October 8, 2016, and within the following weeks measured VRP were moderately above 2 MW. This is coeval with a thermal increase at the fumarole field of the South Area, with temperatures well above 300 °C. Thermal monitoring at Aso Volcano is an additional tool in volcano surveillance that may contribute to near-real-time hazard assessment.