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Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty
- Source :
- O'Reilly, C, Befort, D, Weisheimer, A, Woolings, T, Ballinger, A & Hegerl, G 2021, ' Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty ', Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 2, no. 194 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7, Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 2, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer Nature, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from seasonal to multidecadal timescales. However, the extratropical circulation variability on multidecadal timescales is systematically weaker in coupled climate models. Here we show that projections of future extratropical climate from coupled model simulations significantly underestimate the projected uncertainty range originating from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Using observational datasets and large ensembles of coupled climate models, we produce synthetic ensemble projections constrained to have variability consistent with the large-scale atmospheric circulation in observations. Compared to the raw model projections, the synthetic observationally-constrained projections exhibit an increased uncertainty in projected 21st century temperature and precipitation changes across much of the Northern extratropics. This increased uncertainty is also associated with an increase of the projected occurrence of future extreme seasons. Future projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate based on climate model simulations substantially underestimate the uncertainty that originates from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, suggest synthetic ensemble projections constrained with observations.
- Subjects :
- QE1-996.5
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Atmospheric circulation
Global warming
Northern Hemisphere
Geology
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
01 natural sciences
Physics::Geophysics
Environmental sciences
13. Climate action
Internal variability
Climatology
Extratropical cyclone
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
GE1-350
Climate model
Precipitation
Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
General Environmental Science
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 26624435
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- O'Reilly, C, Befort, D, Weisheimer, A, Woolings, T, Ballinger, A & Hegerl, G 2021, ' Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty ', Communications Earth & Environment, vol. 2, no. 194 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7, Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 2, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2021)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....838101f76e9af38567eaa8b308f874db