Socioecological Predictors of Change in Adolescent Tobacco Use Across Waves 1–4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study

Despite decreases in adolescents' cigarette use over the past decade, overall rates of adolescent tobacco use have increased. Research examining adolescents' changes across a range of tobacco products reflective of the current market, as well as multilevel predictors of use trajectories is needed.Data derive from Waves 1-4 (W1-4; 2013-2018) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. Participants included 975 adolescents who used ≥1 tobacco product (cigarettes, electronic cigarettes [ECIGs], traditional cigars, cigarillos, filtered cigars, snus, smokeless tobacco [SLT], hookah) at any wave (W1 MUtilizing latent growth curve modeling (separate models per product), adolescents displayed increases in their past 30-day use of all tobacco products from W1-4. Greater W1 use was predicted by identifying as non-Hispanic (cigarettes); lower parent education (SLT); greater externalizing problems (cigarillos); greater motives (all products except cigarillos); greater youth-reported household smoking rules (cigarillos); and greater isolation (ECIGs). More use across time (i.e., higher slope) was predicted by older age (cigarettes); identifying as male (ECIGs, SLT), Black (vs. White; cigarillos), White (vs. Black, Hispanic; ECIGs, SLT); fewer externalizing problems (SLT); fewer motives (ECIGs); fewer youth-reported rules (cigarillos, SLT); and greater geographic isolation (cigarettes, SLT).Although some individual-level factors (i.e., motives, externalizing problems) predicted greater W1 use (i.e., intercept) only, interpersonal- (parent rules) and community-level (geographic isolation) factors were associated with changes in use over time (i.e., slope). Intervention efforts may address such factors to reduce adolescents' escalations in use.