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Early-Warning Signals for Marine Anoxic Events
- Source :
- Geophysical Research Letters, 47(20). Wiley Online Library, Geophysical Research Letters 47 (2020) 20, Geophysical Research Letters, 47(20)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Predicting which marine systems are close to abrupt transitions into oxygen-deficient conditions (“anoxia”) is notoriously hard but important—as rising temperatures and coastal eutrophication drive many marine systems toward such tipping points. Rapid oxic-to-anoxic transitions occurred regularly within the eastern Mediterranean Sea on (multi)centennial time scales, and hence, its sedimentary archive allows exploring statistical methods that can indicate approaching tipping points. The here presented high-resolution reconstructions of past oxygen dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea reveal that early-warning signals in these deoxygenation time series occurred long before fast transitions to anoxia. These statistical indicators (i.e., rise in autocorrelation and variance) are hallmarks of so-called critical slowing down, signaling a steady loss of resilience of the oxygenated state as the system approaches a tipping point. Hence, even without precise knowledge of the mechanisms involved, early-warning signals for widespread anoxia in marine systems are recognizable using an appropriate statistical approach.
- Subjects :
- Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management
sedimentary trace metals
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Oxygen dynamics
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
01 natural sciences
Mediterranean sea
early-warning signals
Mediterranean Sea
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
WIMEK
Warning system
sapropels
Autocorrelation
anoxia
Aquatische Ecologie en Waterkwaliteitsbeheer
Tipping point (climatology)
Anoxic waters
Eastern mediterranean
Oceanography
Geophysics
tipping points
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
Water Systems and Global Change
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00948276
- Volume :
- 47
- Issue :
- 20
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....83a77932e808a9ca1862915168ee476f