Reticulocyte Count and Hemoglobin Concentration Predict Survival in Candidates for Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND Prognostic scores are used to assess the likelihood of mortality in cirrhosis and the necessity of liver transplantation. These models are imperfect and refinement would allow more accurate prognostication and selection of patients for transplant. This study investigated association of red cell parameters and mortality in liver transplant candidates. METHODS Data from patients with cirrhosis assessed for transplantation from 2008 to 2010 at Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham, UK were reviewed retrospectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models were used to generate indices predicting mortality. Accuracy of existing and updated models was tested by calculation of c-statistics. Results were validated in a cohort of patients assessed for liver transplant in Jena, Germany. RESULTS Data were collected from 386 patients in the study cohort. Median follow-up was 15 months (0-45). During follow-up, 151 patients (39%) were transplanted, 138 (36%) died, and 97 (25%) survived without transplant. Abnormal reticulocyte count (P