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Predicting the Trend of Taiwan’s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model
- Source :
- Sustainability, Volume 7, Issue 8, Pages 10664-10683, Sustainability, Vol 7, Iss 8, Pp 10664-10683 (2015)
- Publication Year :
- 2015
- Publisher :
- MDPI AG, 2015.
-
Abstract
- Electronic paper (e-paper) is a major sector of Taiwan’s Optoelectronic industry. It has paid much attention on the development of flexible displays. Even though the market is booming, the future is still unclear for business development. No research has yet forecasted the future market size of the e-paper industry. In addition, proposing an appropriate forecasting model to understand the trend of this industry plays a crucial role for market players and government’s authorities in formulating correct strategies. Therefore, in this paper, the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper industry is predicted by an effective combined grey model. Two combinations of DGM(2,1) and Verhulst model with Fourier series and Markov chain, namely FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1), were presented. Based on the annual data of Taiwan’s e-paper industry, the results show that the forecasting performances of two FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1) models are highly accurate compared with other grey models. Precision is 96.36% and 97.77%, respectively. However, for long-term prediction, the FMDGM(2,1) model obtains the best performance in all proposed grey models. With obtained forecasting results in Taiwan’s e-paper industry by the FMDGM(2,1) model, it can be pointed out that the future market size of Taiwan’s e-paper would slowly increase in the next few years.
- Subjects :
- Engineering
Markov chain
Geography, Planning and Development
Market size
TJ807-830
grey model
forecasting
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
TD194-195
Business development
Renewable energy sources
law.invention
law
GE1-350
Electronic paper
Marketing
Industrial organization
Government
Environmental effects of industries and plants
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
business.industry
Fourier series
Environmental sciences
electronic paper
business
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 20711050
- Volume :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Sustainability
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....894c5283f35d0cf2f7f406ec06bd4917