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Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study
- Source :
- Climatic Change, Climatic Change, Springer Verlag, 2020, 163 (3), pp.1603-1620. ⟨10.1007/s10584-020-02799-y⟩, Climatic Change, 163, 1603. Springer Netherlands
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
020209 energy
Carbon dioxide removal
02 engineering and technology
7. Clean energy
01 natural sciences
Scenario analysis
Integrated assessment models
Bioenergy
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
Carbon capture and storage
Biomass
ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Global and Planetary Change
Technological change
Energy modeling
Environmental economics
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society
Climate change mitigation
13. Climate action
Software deployment
Climate policy
Environmental science
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01650009 and 15731480
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Climatic Change, Climatic Change, Springer Verlag, 2020, 163 (3), pp.1603-1620. ⟨10.1007/s10584-020-02799-y⟩, Climatic Change, 163, 1603. Springer Netherlands
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....8b2aa8957b24b16bf0ad7ba23923f509