Association Between Severe Serum Alanine Aminotransferase Flares and Hepatitis B e Antigen Seroconversion and HBV DNA Decrease in Untreated Patients With Chronic HBV Infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence and outcomes of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) flares during the natural history of chronic HBV infection has not been determined in a large, racially heterogeneous group of patients in North America. METHODS: We collected data from the Hepatitis B Research Network—an observational cohort study of untreated adults with chronic HBV infection enrolled at 21 sites in the United States and Canada. Clinical and laboratory data were collected from 1587 participants (49.9% male, 73.7% Asian, 35.2% genotype B infection, mean age of 42.6 years) at enrollment, at weeks 12 and 24, and every 24 weeks thereafter for a planned 5 years of follow up (from January 2011 through May 2016). Participants were excluded if they had a history of hepatic decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, solid organ or bone marrow transplantation, chronic immune suppression, or antiviral therapy within 6 months before enrollment. Levels of ALT were measured in serum samples and flares were defined as at least 10 times the upper limit of normal (300 U/L in males and 200 U/L in females). RESULTS: ALT flares occurred in 102 participants (6%), with 31 flares (30%) occurring at baseline. The 4-year cumulative incidence of ALT flares was 5.7%. The median peak level of ALT was 450 U/L (25th–75th percentile, 330 U/L to 747 U/L) with a maximum of 2578 U/L. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with the occurrence of an ALT flares were: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.02; P=.0007), higher baseline HBV DNA values (OR per log10, 1.41; P