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Assessment of the air pollution emission reduction effect of the coal substitution policy in China: an improved grey modelling approach
- Source :
- Environmental science and pollution research international. 27(27)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- In recent years, the Chinese government has proposed a policy to replace coal use with natural gas and electricity in the northern region to reduce the air pollution caused by the large consumption of coal. In order to assess the air pollution reduction effect of the coal substitution policy in Liaoning Province, this paper proposes a data grouping grey model with a fractional order accumulation (FDGGM (1,1)). The empirical analysis results show that the new grey model can predict the monthly coal consumption more accurately than the traditional DGGM (1,1) model. The MAPEs of the training set in the FDGGM(1,1) and DGGM(1,1) models are 4.58% and 5.48%, and the MAPEs of the test set are 23.89% and 33.78%, respectively. And the policy achieves a great success based on the FDGGM(1,1) model. During the policy implementation period (from January 2015 to December 2018), the coal consumption in Liaoning Province decreased by 27.2501 million tons, while the emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx fell by 0.714, 0.2316 and 0.2017 million tons, respectively. The results also provide a necessary support to the further implementation of the coal substitution policy.
- Subjects :
- China
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Air pollution
010501 environmental sciences
Natural Gas
medicine.disease_cause
01 natural sciences
Reduction (complexity)
Natural gas
Air Pollution
medicine
Environmental Chemistry
Coal
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Consumption (economics)
Air Pollutants
business.industry
Substitution (logic)
Environmental engineering
General Medicine
Pollution
Environmental science
Electricity
business
Power Plants
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 16147499
- Volume :
- 27
- Issue :
- 27
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Environmental science and pollution research international
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....9937e64683701b9d54c4d644070a43d2