Transcatheter aortic valve implantation-related futility: prevalence, predictors, and clinical risk model

Futility denotes failure to achieve the projected outcome. We investigated the prevalence, predictors, and clinical risk model of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI)-related futility. We included 464 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI from 2010 to 2017. Futility was defined as death and/or hospitalization for heart failure (HFH) within 1 year after TAVI. Of 464 patients (mean age: 84.4 years), 69% were females (EuroSCOREII: 6.3%; Society of Thoracic Surgeons [STS] score: 6.9%). Forty-six patients (9.9%) experienced TAVI-related futility, and 36 of 46 patients (69.6%) died within 1 year due to cardiac (37.5%) and non-cardiac (62.5%) causes. Previous HFH (hazard ratio [HR], 2.20; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13–4.35, p = 0.020), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (HR, 3.39; 95% CI: 1.12–8.42, p = 0.033), and moderate/severe mitral or tricuspid regurgitation (HR, 2.98; 95% CI: 1.32–6.27, p = 0.010) were independent predictors of futility. With 1 point assigned to each predictor (total 0 point, futility low-risk; total 1 point, futility intermediate-risk; total 2–3 points, futility high-risk), the futility risk model clearly stratified individual futility risk into three groups (the freedom from futility at 1 year: 96.2%, 82.1%, and 67.9% each). Our futility risk model presented better discrimination than EuroSCOREII, and STS score (c-statistic: 0.73 vs. 0.68 vs. 0.67). Medical futility was recognized in 9.9% of patients undergoing TAVI. Previous HFH, COPD, and concomitant atrioventricular regurgitation were associated with futility. The risk model derived from three predictors showed good performance in predicting futility risk.