Homologue-based Estimations of Short-Chain Chlorinated Paraffin Emissions and Concentrations in Japan

Short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) are persistent organic pollutants. In Japan, SCCPs are widely detected in the environment although the production and use of SCCPs have been banned. It is essential to estimate the amount and sources of SCCPs to implement countermeasures for SCCP emission. In this study, we estimated the emission and environmental concentrations of SCCP homologues in Japan from 1950 to 2050. Initially, the material flow of total SCCPs was estimated considering the material recycling process. The emission from each process during the entire life cycle of products containing SCCPs was estimated for each homologue. Volatilization factors of long-term-use products were specifically estimated from release factors and surface area, weight, and SCCP concentration of products containing SCCPs. The environmental concentrations were then estimated using the environmental fate model. In the material flow and emission estimation, parameter uncertainties, such as emission factors and SCCP application distribution, were considered, assuming each parameter follows a uniform distribution. The results of emission estimation suggested a decreasing trend of SCCP emission in recent years and continuation of this trend in the future. However, some emissions from long-term-use products may persist. In the future, products that have a long lifetime with closed-loop recycling, such as polyvinyl chloride wire-coating materials, are expected to significantly contribute to atmospheric emission. Moreover, recycled products may contain SCCPs. Based on the estimated concentration, the estimated water and sediment concentrations were within the range of the observed concentrations. Conversely, we could reduce the gap between the estimated and observed atmospheric SCCP concentrations compared with those in previous studies that did not consider the volatilization factor for each SCCP-containing product and material recycling process. However, a difference between the estimated and observed concentrations suggests that some unconsidered emission sources may exist that emit SCCPs into the atmosphere, such as SCCPs as impurities in medium-chain chlorinated paraffins, imported products containing SCCPs, and atmospheric advection from other countries. Hence, it is essential to calculate emissions from sources other than products that intentionally contain SCCPs produced in the past.