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Epidemiological models and COVID-19: a comparative view
- Source :
- History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Springer International Publishing, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Epidemiological models have played a central role in the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly when urgent decisions were required and available evidence was sparse. They have been used to predict the evolution of the disease and to inform policy-making. In this paper, we address two kinds of epidemiological models widely used in the pandemic, namely, compartmental models and agent-based models. After describing their essentials—some real examples are invoked—we discuss their main strengths and weaknesses. Then, on the basis of this analysis, we make a comparison between their respective merits concerning three different goals: prediction, explanation, and intervention. We argue that there are general considerations which could favour any of those sorts of models for obtaining the aforementioned goals. We conclude, however, that preference for particular models must be grounded case-by-case since additional contextual factors, as the peculiarities of the target population and the aims and expectations of policy-makers, cannot be overlooked.
- Subjects :
- Agent-based models
History
Philosophy of science
Original Paper
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Computer science
Management science
Epidemiology
SARS-CoV-2
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Decision Making
COVID-19
Target population
Models, Theoretical
Preference
Philosophy of biology
Intervention (law)
History and Philosophy of Science
Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
Humans
Prediction
Policy Making
Compartmental models
Strengths and weaknesses
Decision-making
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 17426316 and 03919714
- Volume :
- 43
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....a744271c6e1e02c4cb70dcf65c3a3927