Long-term incidence of cardiovascular outcomes in the middle-aged and elderly with different patterns of physical activity: Tehran lipid and glucose study

Background Following the global upward trend of cardiovascular diseases (CVD/CHD), much attention has been paid to lifestyle behaviors such as physical activity (PA). However, most of previous studies were conducted in developed countries and with just one measurement of physical activity. The aim of the current study is to assess the effect of changes in the PA on the incidence of CVD/CHD in middle-aged and older men and women in an Eastern-Mediterranean population, over a decade follow-up. Methods This study has been conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) including 4073 (57% women) participants without CVD/CHD at baseline. The participants were followed up for an average period of 12 years. The Iranian version of Modified Activity Questionnaire (MAQ) was used to measure PA at baseline and at the closest follow-up to the outcome. Subsequently, participants were categorized as “compliers”, “non-compliers”, “adopters” and “relapsers”, based on their adherence to the PA guideline recommendations. All analysis has been conducted in two separate age groups including middle-aged and elderly in both men and women. The effect of PA patterns on incidence of CVD/CHD was investigated using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables including marital status, job status, education, smoking, and family history of CVD/CHD were adjusted in the models. Results Adherence to guideline recommendation increased from 63.5 to 66.6% between the two measurements. At the second measurement of PA, the percentages of compliers, non-compliers, adopters and relapsers were 48.4, 18.3, 18.2, and 15.1%, respectively. In fully adjusted models, HRs of CVD and CHD for men aged 40–60 years in the complier group were 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38–0.87, P = 0.008) and 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38–0.89, P = 0.01), respectively. HRs of CVD and CHD for men aged 40–60 years in adopter group were 0.61 (95% CI: 0.38–0.96, P = 0.03) and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.37–0.97, P = 0.04) respectively. The corresponding values were not significant in women. Conclusions Adhering to established PA recommendations have a protective effect on the incidence of CVD/CHD among middle-aged men; findings which need to be considered in reducing cardiovascular outcomes in this population.