Scoring System Based on Post-Transplant Complications in Patients after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndrome: A Study from the SFGM-TC

Purpose We developed a prognostic scoring system to evaluate the prognosis of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients surviving more than 100 days allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation after (allo-HCT). Patients and methods We performed a landmark analysis on a derivation cohort of 393 cases to identify prognostic factors for 3-year overall survival. Potential predictor variables included demographic and clinical data, transplantation modalities and early post-transplant complications. The scoring system was tested against a validation cohort which included 391 patients. Results Complications occurring before day 100 such as relapse [HR = 6.7; 95%CI, 4.5-10.0] (4 points), lack of platelet recovery [HR, 3.6; 95%CI, 2.2-5.8] (2 points), grade-II acute GVHD [HR = 1.7; 95%CI, 1.2-2.5] (1 point) and grade-III/IV [HR = 2.6; 95%CI, 1.8 -3.8] (2 points) were the only independent predictors of 3-year OS. The 3-year OS associated with low (0), intermediate (1-3) and high (≥4) risk scores was respectively 70%, 46% and 6%. The model performed consistently in both cohorts, with good calibration. Conclusion This post-transplant scoring system is a powerful predictor of outcome after allo-HCT for MDS, and can provide useful guidance for clinicians. Additional studies are required to evaluate this scoring system for other hematologic malignancies.