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A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis
- Source :
- Phytopathology, Phytopathology, American Phytopathological Society, 2017, 107 (10), pp.1109-1122. ⟨10.1094/PHYTO-01-17-0027-F1⟩, Phytopathology, American Phytopathological Society, 2017, 107 (10), pp.1109-1122. ⟨10.1094/PHYTO-01-17-0027-FI⟩, Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA-Alice), Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), instacron:EMBRAPA, LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV, Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), instacron:UFV
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2017.
-
Abstract
- International audience; Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]
Plant Science
01 natural sciences
SMALL-GRAIN CEREALS
Theoretical
Doença de planta
Models
wheat
Plant Pathosystems
Triticum
Epidemiology
2. Zero hunger
CLIMATE-CHANGE
FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT
Environmental resource management
food and beverages
MYCOSPHAERELLA-GRAMINICOLA
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
WINTER-WHEAT
Plant disease
Wheat
[SDE]Environmental Sciences
Settore AGR/12 - PATOLOGIA VEGETALE
Risk assessment
Crops, Agricultural
Risk
Risk analysis
Climate Change
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes
Climate change
Crops
Trigo
Biology
Scenario development and analysis
agrosystem
Computer Simulation
Scenario analysis
Epidemiologia
Plant Diseases
YELLOW DWARF VIRUS
Agricultural
SEPTORIA-TRITICI BLOTCH
Plant disease epidemiology
business.industry
NORTH-WEST EUROPE
Simulation modeling
pathogens
Models, Theoretical
15. Life on land
[SDV.BV.PEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Phytopathology and phytopharmacy
A white paper
MAPPING POTENTIAL EPIDEMICS
13. Climate action
PLANT-DISEASES
040103 agronomy & agriculture
0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
fungi
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
business
Septoria like
Agronomy and Crop Science
010606 plant biology & botany
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0031949X
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Phytopathology, Phytopathology, American Phytopathological Society, 2017, 107 (10), pp.1109-1122. ⟨10.1094/PHYTO-01-17-0027-F1⟩, Phytopathology, American Phytopathological Society, 2017, 107 (10), pp.1109-1122. ⟨10.1094/PHYTO-01-17-0027-FI⟩, Repositório Institucional da EMBRAPA (Repository Open Access to Scientific Information from EMBRAPA-Alice), Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Embrapa), instacron:EMBRAPA, LOCUS Repositório Institucional da UFV, Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), instacron:UFV
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....b4ec36d591e804f00a89cabaea955780