Non-Invasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis Help in Predicting the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma among Patients with NAFLD

Carcinoma hepatocelular; Elastografía transitoria Carcinoma hepatocel·lular; Elastografia transitòria Hepatocellular carcinoma; Transient elastography Background: The potential role of non-invasive tests (NITs) for liver fibrosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction remains poorly known. Methods: Retrospective analysis of a NAFLD cohort from a single university hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Incidence rates and cumulative incidence for the overall cohort, as well as cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients were calculated. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to investigate risk factors of HCC. Results: From the entire cohort of 1040 patients, 996 patients (95.8%) were analyzed, in whom 35 cases of HCC were detected, of which 26 (72.4%) HCC incident cases were newly diagnosed during a median follow-up of 2.5 (1.9–3.6) years. Two-hundred and thirty-one (23.2%) were cirrhotic at baseline. With the exception of 2 (7.7%) cases of HCC, the rest were diagnosed in cirrhotic patients. Overall HCC cumulative incidence was 9.49 (95% CI 6.4–13.9) per 1000 person-years. The incidence rate for cirrhotic patients was 41.2 (95% CI 27.6–61.6) per 1000 person-years and 0.93 (95% CI 0.23–3.7) per 1000 person-years for patients without cirrhosis. Overall mortality was significantly higher amongst patients with HCC (4.4% vs. 30.8%, p < 0.001). In patients with available liver biopsy (n = 249, 25%), advanced fibrosis (F3–F4) was significantly associated with higher HCC incidence, but not steatosis, lobular inflammation, nor ballooning. In the overall cohort, FIB-4 ≥1.3 (HR 8.46, 95% CI 1.06–67.4, p = 0.044) and older age (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01–1.11, p = 0.025) were associated with increasing risk of HCC over time, whereas in cirrhotic patients predictors of HCC included decreasing values of albumin (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13–0.87, p = 0.024), platelets (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98–0.99, p = 0.001), and increasing values of liver stiffness (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.06, p = 0.016). Conclusions: In a Spanish cohort of NAFLD patients, HCC was rare in non-cirrhotic patients. NITs might play a relevant role at predicting HCC. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by the Vall d’Hebron University Hospital Campus Institutional Review Board (study protocol code PR(AG)626/2021).