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Prediction of habitat suitability for Patrinia sibirica Juss. in the Southern Urals
- Source :
- Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021), Scientific Reports
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Nature Portfolio, 2021.
-
Abstract
- The paper presents the results of predictions of the habitat persistence for rare relict of the Pleistocene floristic complex Patrinia sibirica (L.) Juss. in the Southern Urals under various forecasted climate change scenarios. Climate variables from CHELSA BIOCLIM, elevation data (GMTED2010) and coarse fragment content in the top level of soil were used as predictors for modeling in the MaxEnt software. The impact of climate change on P. sibirica habitats under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios calculated from an ensemble of four general circulation models has been analyzed. The modeling has shown that the changes in the habitat suitability depend on the altitude. Deterioration of the habitats could be attributed to a temperature increase in mountain forest locations, and to a precipitation of driest quarter increase in mountain forest-steppe locations. In both cases, this leads to the expansion of forest and shrub vegetation. Monitoring of the habitat persistence of P. sibirica and other relict species of the Pleistocene floristic complex can play a major role in predictions, as their massive decline would constitute that climatic changes exceed the ranges of their fluctuations in the Holocene.
- Subjects :
- Pleistocene
Climate
Climate Change
Science
ved/biology.organism_classification_rank.species
Biodiversity
Climate change
Forests
Shrub
Article
Russia
Altitude
Ecosystem
Holocene
Patrinia
Multidisciplinary
Conservation biology
ved/biology
Climate-change ecology
Vegetation
Habitat
Environmental science
Medicine
Physical geography
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20452322
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....b81a3f0664fafa7195737b73265cd233