Prognostic value of serum paraprotein response kinetics in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

Response kinetics is not well-established as a prognostic marker in multiple myeloma (MM). We developed a mathematical model to assess the prognostic value of serum monoclonal component (MC) response kinetics during 6 induction cycles in 373 newly diagnosed MM patients. The model calculated a resistance parameter that reflects the stagnation in the response after an initial descent, dividing the patients into two kinetics categories with significantly different progression-free survival (PFS). Introduction: Response kinetics is a well-established prognostic marker in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The situation is not clear in multiple myeloma (MM) despite having a biomarker for response monitoring (monoclonal component [MC]). Materials and Methods: We developed a mathematical model to assess the prognostic value of serum MC response kinetics during 6 induction cycles, in 373 NDMM transplanted patients treated in the GEM2012Menos65 clinical trial. The model calculated a resistance parameter that reflects the stagnation in the response after an initial descent. Results: Two patient subgroups were defined based on low and high resistance, that respectively captured sensitive and refractory kinetics, with progression-free survival (PFS) at 5 years of 72% and 59% (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.44-0.93; P =.02). Resistance significantly correlated with depth of response measured after consolidation (80.9% CR and 68.4% minimal residual disease negativity in patients with sensitive vs. 31% and 20% in those with refractory kinetics). Furthermore, it modulated the impact of reaching CR after consolidation; thus, within CR patients those with refractory kinetics had significantly shorter PFS than those with sensitive kinetics (median 54 months vs. NR; P =.02). Minimal residual disease negativity abrogated this effect. Our study also questions the benefit of rapid responders compared to late responders (5-year PFS 59.7% vs. 76.5%, respectively [P