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Characterizing two outbreak waves of COVID-19 in Spain using phenomenological epidemic modelling
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 6, p e0253004 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Since the first case reported of SARS-CoV-2 the end of December 2019 in China, the number of cases quickly climbed following an exponential growth trend, demonstrating that a global pandemic is possible. As of December 3, 2020, the total number of cases reported are around 65,527,000 contagions worldwide, and 1,524,000 deaths affecting 218 countries and territories. In this scenario, Spain is one of the countries that has suffered in a hard way, the ongoing epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, namely COVID-19 disease. In this paper, we present the utilization of phenomenological epidemic models to characterize the two first outbreak waves of COVID-19 in Spain. The study is driven using a two-step phenomenological epidemic approach. First, we use a simple generalized growth model to fit the main parameters at the early epidemic phase; later, we apply our previous finding over a logistic growth model to that characterize both waves completely. The results show that even in the absence of accurate data series, it is possible to characterize the curves of case incidence, and construct a short-term forecast of 60 days in the near time horizon, in relation to the expected total duration of the pandemic.
- Subjects :
- 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Viral Diseases
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Epidemiology
Science
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Population Modeling
Time horizon
Data series
Research and Analysis Methods
Models, Biological
Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Geographical locations
Medical Conditions
Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
Pandemic
Econometrics
Medicine and Health Sciences
Humans
European Union
Disease Dynamics
Logistic function
Pandemics
Multidisciplinary
Population Biology
SARS-CoV-2
Outbreak
Biology and Life Sciences
Computational Biology
COVID-19
Covid 19
Curve Fitting
Europe
Geography
Infectious Diseases
Spain
Medicine
People and places
Infectious Disease Modeling
Mathematical Functions
Research Article
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 16
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....bb9cf1d1811678632a6f3c9079757d82