Balancing the Risks of Recurrent Ischaemic and Bleeding Events in a Stable Post ACS Population

To better guide decisions regarding antithrombotic treatment in individual patients surviving 6 months following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) by balancing between subsequent recurrent ischaemic and bleeding risk.Patients surviving 6 months following an ACS were followed in an Australian registry. Ischaemic (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke) and bleeding (≥BARC 2) events were collected. A dual binary outcome modelling strategy was used arriving at a common set of variables from which bleeding and ischaemic risk could be independently determined in individual patients. Patients in whom bleeding rates exceeded composite ischaemic event rates during the follow-up period were identified.The cohort comprised 5,905 patients in whom 215 experienced an ischaemic event and 49 a bleeding event. The single set of variables included in both ischaemic and bleeding models (C-statistics 0.71 and 0.72 respectively) included modified TIGRISThe risk of recurrent ischaemic events exceeds bleeding in most patients followed 6 to 24 months following an ACS. Post CABG patients with comorbidities have a higher risk of bleeding over this period during which time attention should be directed towards modifiable bleeding risk factors including requirement for dual antiplatelet therapy.