Predictors for Permanent Discontinuation of Systemic Immunosuppression in Severely Affected Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease Patients

Predicting the duration of systemic therapy in patients with chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) is of critical clinical importance when counseling patients and for treatment planning. cGVHD characteristics associated with this outcome have not been studied in severely affected patients. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) cGVHD scoring provides a standardized set of organ severity measures that could represent clinically useful and reproducible predictive characteristics. We analyzed 227 previously treated patients most with moderate (n = 54) or severe (n = 170) cGVHD defined by NIH criteria who were prospectively enrolled in a natural history protocol (NCT00092235). Patients received a median of 4 prior systemic therapy regimens and were seen at the NIH for a single time-point visit and were then monitored for survival and ability to discontinue cGVHD systemic therapy. With a median follow-up of 71.1 months, the cumulative incidence of systemic therapy discontinuation was 9.5% (95% confidence interval, 6.0% to 13.9%) at 2 years and 27.7% (95% confidence interval, 20.9% to 34.8%) by 5 years after the initial visit. Factors associated with a higher incidence of immunosuppression discontinuation included lower NIH global severity (P = .019) and lung (P = .030) scores and less extensive deep sclerosis (37% body surface area, P = .024). Lower patient- and clinician-reported 0 to 10 severity NIH scores and noncyclosporine prophylaxis regimens were also associated with higher incidence of immunosuppression discontinuation (P .05). In conclusion, we found low success rates for immune suppression discontinuation in previously treated patients who were severely affected with cGVHD. NIH scoring and clinical measures provide new standardized disease-specific tools to predict discontinuation of systemic therapy.