The promise of negative emissions

In their Perspective “The trouble with negative emissions” (14 October, p. [182][1] ), K. Anderson and G. Peters assert that negative-emissions technologies are an “unjust and high-stakes gamble.” This characterization would sideline negative-emissions technologies and remove potentially important options from the portfolio for mitigating and ameliorating climate change. As Anderson and Peters acknowledge, the remaining carbon budget is pitifully small; at the current rate, the world will blow through 600 Gt of CO2 in 15 years. Dumping this much CO2 in the atmosphere will almost certainly result in more than 1.5°C warming. Indeed, as advocates of a 350-ppm target point out, the remaining CO2 budget could be negative. Anderson and Peters provide no evidence that faith in negative-emissions technologies is to blame for a delay in implementing other mitigation plans or for the failure of countries to cut emissions. This failure is easily explained by the free-riding behavior of some countries ([ 1 ][2]), and taking negative-emissions technologies off the table would not make collective action any easier. Indeed, given that negative-emission technologies require financial contributions, not changes in behavior, their development and deployment may well be less vulnerable to free riding. Furthermore, we need a lot of arrows in the quiver to stand a chance of meeting the Paris targets. This was a key finding from the integrated assessment modelers ([ 2 ][3]). Rather than dividing mitigation into competing strategies, an inclusive approach would focus on stopping climate change as fast as possible while minimizing risk to vulnerable populations and to societal stability. Negative-emission technologies are not unique in facing challenges, risks, and uncertainties. It is true that negative emissions may fall short of closing the gap, but to characterize them as a high-stakes gamble is not consistent with the facts and the plausibility of meeting the Paris goals without them. Throwing a life-preserver to a drowning victim may not assure a successful rescue, but it is not a high-stakes gamble. Offering the life-preserver is preferable to withholding it, even though it might reduce the victim's incentive for learning how to swim. ![][4] At the current rate of carbon emissions, it will be difficult to meet climate goals. PHOTO: YOCAMON [www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/354/6313/714-a/DC1][5] Full author list 1. [↵][6]1. S. Barrett, 2. R. Stavins , Int. Environ. Agreements 3, 349 (2003). [OpenUrl][7] 2. [↵][8]1. O. Edenhofer 2. et al IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, O. Edenhofer et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014). [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182.full [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: /embed/graphic-1.gif [5]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/354/6313/714-a/DC1 [6]: #xref-ref-1-1 "View reference 1 in text" [7]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DInt.%2BEnviron.%2BAgreements%26rft.volume%253D3%26rft.spage%253D349%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [8]: #xref-ref-2-1 "View reference 2 in text"