Early Efficacy of Antipsychotic Medications at Week 2 Predicts Subsequent Responses at Week 6 in a Large-scale Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Since the early clinical efficacy of antipsychotics has not yet been well perceived, this study sought to decide whether the efficacy of antipsychotics at week 2 can predict subsequent responses at week 6 and identify how such predictive capacities vary among different antipsychotics and psychotic symptoms. Methods: A total of 3010 patients with schizophrenia enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and received a 6-week treatment with one antipsychotic drug randomly chosen from five atypical antipsychotics (risperidone 2-6 mg/d, olanzapine 5-20 mg/d, quetiapine 400-750 mg/d, aripiprazole 10-30 mg/d, and ziprasidone 80-160 mg/d) and two typical antipsychotics (perphenazine 20-60 mg/d and haloperidol 6-20 mg/d). Early efficacy was defined as the reduction rate using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) total score at week 2. With cut-offs at 50% reduction, logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and random forests were adopted. Results: The reduction rate of PANSS total score and improvement of psychotic symptoms at week 2 enabled subsequent responses to 7 antipsychotics to be predicted, in which improvements in delusions, lack of judgment and insight, unusual thought content, and suspiciousness/ persecution were endowed with the greatest weight. Conclusions: It is robust enough to clinically predict treatment responses to antipsychotics at week 6 using the reduction rate of PANSS total score and symptom relief at week 2. Psychiatric clinicians had better determine whether to switch the treatment plan by the first 2 weeks. Clinical Trial Registration Number: This RCT was registered at the Chinese Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: ChiCTR-TRC-10000934).