Deep Multilayer Perceptron for Knowledge Extraction: Understanding the Gardon de Mialet Flash Floods Modeling

Issu de : ITISE 2019 - International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, Granada, Spain, 25-27 September 2019; International audience; Flash floods frequently hit Southern France and cause heavy damages and fatalities. To enhance persons and goods safety, official flood forecasting services in France need accurate information and efficient models to optimize their decisions and policy in crisis management. Their forecasting is a serious challenge as heavy rainfalls that cause such floods are very heterogeneous in time and space. Such phenomena are typically nonlinear and more complex than classical flood events. This analysis had led to consider complementary alternatives to enhance the management of such situations. For decades, artificial neural networks have been proved very efficient to model nonlinear phenomena, particularly rainfall-discharge relations in various types of basins. They are applied in this study with two main goals: first, modeling flash floods on the Gardon de Mialet basin (Southern France); second, extract internal information from the model by using the KnoX: knowledge extraction method to provide new ways to improve models. The first analysis shows that the kind of nonlinear predictor strongly influences the representation of information, e.g., the main influent variable (rainfall) is more important in the recurrent and static models than in the feed-forward one. For understanding “long-term” flash floods genesis, recurrent and static models appear thus as better candidates, despite their lower performance. Besides, the distribution of weights linking the exogenous variables to the first layer of neurons is consistent with the physical considerations about spatial distribution of rainfall and response time of the hydrological system.