Adapting to Change

Parameterisation of a mechanistic population model with data from a 51-year study on great tits suggests that phenotypic plasticity is crucial for viability of bird populations under current climate change scenarios.
Predictions about the fate of species or populations under climate change scenarios typically neglect adaptive evolution and phenotypic plasticity, the two major mechanisms by which organisms can adapt to changing local conditions. As a consequence, we have little understanding of the scope for organisms to track changing environments by in situ adaptation. Here, we use a detailed individual-specific long-term population study of great tits (Parus major) breeding in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK to parameterise a mechanistic model and thus directly estimate the rate of environmental change to which in situ adaptation is possible. Using the effect of changes in early spring temperature on temporal synchrony between birds and a critical food resource, we focus in particular on the contribution of phenotypic plasticity to population persistence. Despite using conservative estimates for evolutionary and reproductive potential, our results suggest little risk of population extinction under projected local temperature change; however, this conclusion relies heavily on the extent to which phenotypic plasticity tracks the changing environment. Extrapolating the model to a broad range of life histories in birds suggests that the importance of phenotypic plasticity for adjustment to projected rates of temperature change increases with slower life histories, owing to lower evolutionary potential. Understanding the determinants and constraints on phenotypic plasticity in natural populations is thus crucial for characterising the risks that rapidly changing environments pose for the persistence of such populations.
Author Summary Predictions about the effect of climate change on organisms often ignore the possibility that organisms can evolve, or that they have an inbuilt capacity to cope with changing conditions. In order to understand the potential for existing populations to adapt to climate change, and the relative risks of extinction, such processes need to be modelled together with projected changes in climate. In this paper, we use data from a long-term study (51 years) of a small bird, the great tit, to model how birds can match the time they breed each year with the time their food is most abundant, and how this match can change with a changing climate. We found that evolution offers the chance for short-lived birds to adapt at the rate of climate change that is expected over the next century, but that the most important way that birds can cope with climate change is their evolved ability to adjust their behaviour depending on the environment they experience (“plasticity”). We extrapolated the model to other bird species, to estimate their relative vulnerability to changing climate. The model shows that longer-lived species (which also tend to have fewer offspring and take longer to reach sexual maturity) are more vulnerable to extinction because their evolutionary potential is lower. For such species, the importance of close adjustment to their environment becomes even greater. Hence, knowledge of the causes and limits of individual adjustment to the environment are crucial to predict the fate of populations under climate change.