Circumpolar variations in the chaotic nature of Southern Ocean eddy dynamics

Circulation in the Southern Ocean is unique. The strong wind stress forcing and buoyancy fluxes, in concert with the lack of continental boundaries, conspire to drive the Antarctic Circumpolar Current replete with an intense eddy field. The effect of Southern Ocean eddies on the ocean circulation is significant – they modulate the momentum balance of the zonal flow, and the meridional transport of tracers and mass. The strength of the eddy field is controlled by a combination of forcing (primarily thought to be wind stress) and intrinsic, chaotic, variability associated with the turbulent flow field itself. Here, we present results from an eddy-permitting ensemble of ocean model simulations to investigate the relative contribution of forced and intrinsic processes in governing the variability of Southern Ocean eddy kinetic energy. We find that variations of the eddy field are mostly random, even on longer (interannual) timescales. Where correlations between the wind stress forcing and the eddy field exist, these interactions are dominated by two distinct timescales – a fast baroclinic instability response; and a multi-year process owing to feedback between bathymetry and the mean flow. These results suggest that understanding Southern Ocean eddy dynamics and its larger-scale impacts requires an ensemble approach to eliminate intrinsic variability, and therefore may not yield robust conclusions from observations alone. Plain Language Summary The Southern Ocean is the most turbulent part of the world’s oceans. This turbulence, often referred to as eddies, is critical to the evolution of the Southern Ocean under climate change. But it’s hard to get information about these eddies, because they occur on small scales in a large ocean basin that is poorly observed. In addition, the observational record is quite short, which makes it more difficult to use these observations to study what controls variations of these eddies. For this reason, we take an eddy-permitting ocean model, and run it 50 times with the same forcing (but a slightly different initial state). The chaotic nature of the turbulent ocean means that these model runs exhibit different evolutions. Then we use these simulations to study which eddy processes occur as a consequence of the chaotic nature of turbulence and which are forced by the external factors that are common to all model runs (such as wind stress). We conclude that monthly-to-interannual fluctuations of the Southern Ocean eddy field are dominated by chaotic processes; but that the forced variability responds to wind on particular timescales that are controlled by the mechanisms that generate ocean turbulence.