Risk Factors Predicting Severe Asthma Exacerbations in Adult Asthmatics: A Real-World Clinical Evidence

Purpose Minimizing the future risk of asthma exacerbation (AE) is one of the main goals of asthma management. We investigated prognostic factors for risk of severe AE (SAE) in a real-world clinical setting. Methods This is an observational study evaluating subjects who were diagnosed with asthma and treated with anti-asthmatic medications from January 1995 to June 2018. Risk factors for SAE were analyzed in 2 treatment periods (during the initial 2 years and the following 3–10 years of treatment) using the big data of electronic medical records. Results In this study, 5,058 adult asthmatics were enrolled; 1,335 (28.64%) experienced ≥ 1 SAE during the initial 2 years of treatment. Female sex, higher peripheral eosinophil/basophil counts, and lower levels of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1; %) were factors predicting the risk of SAEs (P < 0.001 for all). Higher serum total immunoglobulin E levels increased the risk of SAEs among the patients having ≤ 2 SAEs (P = 0.025). Patients with more frequent SAEs during the initial 2 years of treatment had significantly higher risks of SAEs during the following years of treatment (P < 0.001, for all) (patients with ≥ 4 SAEs, odds ratio [OR], 29.147; those with 3 SAEs, OR, 14.819; those with 2 SAEs, OR, 9.867; those with 1 SAE, OR, 5.116), had higher maintenance doses of systemic steroids, and showed more gradual decline in FEV1 (%) and FEV1/forced vital capacity levels maintained during the following years of treatment (P < 0.001 for all). Conclusions Asthmatics having risk factors for SAEs (female sex, higher peripheral eosinophil/basophil counts, and lower FEV1) should be strictly monitored to prevent future risk and improve clinical outcomes.