Long-term immunological outcomes of early subclinical inflammation on surveillance kidney allograft biopsies

The long-term impact of early subclinical inflammation (SCI) through surveillance biopsy has not been well studied. To do this, we recruited a prospective observational cohort that included 1000 sequential patients who received a kidney transplant from 2013-2017 at our center. A total of 586 patients who underwent a surveillance biopsy in their first year post-transplant were included after excluding those with clinical rejections, and those who were unable to undergo a surveillance biopsy. Patients were classified based on their biopsy findings: 282 with NSI (No Significant Inflammation) and 304 with SCI-T (SCI and Tubulitis) which was further subdivided into 182 with SC-BLR (Subclinical Borderline Changes) and 122 with SC-TCMR (Subclinical T Cell Mediated Rejection, Banff 2019 classification of 1A or more). We followed the clinical and immunological events including Clinical Biopsy Proven Acute Rejection [C-BPAR], long-term kidney function and death-censored graft loss over a median follow-up of five years. Episodes of C-BPAR were noted at a median of two years post-transplant. Adjusted odds of having a subsequent C-BPAR was significantly higher in the SCI-T group [SC-BLR and SC-TCMR] compared to NSI 3.8 (2.1-7.5). The adjusted hazard for death-censored graft loss was significantly higher with SCI-T compared to NSI [1.99 (1.04-3.84)]. Overall, SCI detected through surveillance biopsy within the first year post-transplant is a harbinger for subsequent immunological events and is associated with a significantly greater hazard for subsequent C-BPAR and death-censored graft loss. Thus, our study highlights the need for identifying patients with SCI through surveillance biopsy and develop strategies to prevent further alloimmune injuries.