Geospatial Simulation Model of Sustainable Mangrove Development Scenarios for the Years 2030 and 2050 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico

Anthropogenic activities influence the loss of mangroves, increase natural phenomena such as hurricanes, tropical storms, and El Niño, and consequently increase concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2, promoting climate change. There are strategies to reduce emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the General Law on Climate Change to counteract these conditions. Therefore, this research aims to generate an integral simulation model of sustainable mangrove development scenarios for 2030 and 2050 through mitigation strategies, using geospatial techniques, multi-criteria evaluation, and generating a future surface demand model. The Marismas Nacionales study area is a mangrove ecosystem and an important carbon sink. The simulation model determined that the mangrove area in 2030 will be 77,555 hectares, with an estimated absorption of 358.95 Gg CO2 e (equivalent). By 2050 there will be 86,476 ha, absorbing 400.24 Gg CO2 e. This increase will be in disturbed mangrove areas and other wetlands. The sustainable simulation model and the surface demand model can be applied in any study area to increase, protect, and conserve mangroves to benefit the social, economic, and environmental sectors.