Predicting liver failure in parenteral nutrition-dependent short bowel syndrome of infancy

Objectives To test the hypothesis that early trends in common blood tests may delineate risks of liver failure (LF) in infants with parenteral nutrition-associated liver disease (PNALD) from short bowel syndrome and suggest criteria for transplant referral. Study design Total levels of bilirubin, gamma-glutamyl transferase, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, and absolute neutrophil count were recorded every 3 months for 61 infants with PNALD who were being considered for intestinal transplant starting at age 3 months until death without transplant (n = 12), LF with transplant (n = 35), or liver recovery without transplant (n = 14). Probabilities of LF were determined with logistic regression. Results Independent predictors of LF were, in descending order, total bilirubin level (odds ratio [OR] = 1.195), platelet count (OR = 0.992), and albumin level (OR = 0.248). Predicted probabilities of eventual LF varied from 36% to 38% at ages 3 to 6 months when the total bilirubin level was 6.0 mg/dL, platelet count was 220 x 103/μL, and albumin level was 3.5 g/dL to 83% to 84% when the total bilirubin level was 11.7 mg/dL, platelet count was 168 x 103/μL, and albumin level was 3.0 g/dL. Conclusions Transplant referral for a total bilirubin level of 6 mg/dL between 3 to 6 months of age is appropriate, because the probability of LF is at least 36%.