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A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

Authors :
Katja Frieler
Taikan Oki
Qiuhong Tang
Jens Heinke
Almut Arneth
Douglas B. Clark
Jacob Schewe
Simon N. Gosling
Mark R. Lomas
Dominik Wisser
Yoshimitsu Masaki
Balázs M. Fekete
Ingjerd Haddeland
Pete Falloon
P. Ciais
Franziska Piontek
Christoph Schmitz
Kazuya Nishina
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Elke Stehfest
Anders Levermann
Andrew D. Friend
Petra Döll
C. Gellhorn
Erwin Schmid
Marc F. P. Bierkens
Tobias Stacke
Ryan Pavlick
Veronika Huber
Christian Folberth
K. Neumann
Delphine Deryng
Nikolay Khabarov
Lila Warszawski
Alex C. Ruane
Joshua Elliott
Hermann Lotze-Campen
Hydrologie
Sub NMR Spectroscopy
Sub FG LGH 3e geldstroom
Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology
Max-Planck-Institut für Extraterrestrische Physik (MPE)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis
Geobiosphere Science Centre
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE)
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC)
Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
Institute of Physical Geography
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)
Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics: National Centre for Earth Observation (CTCD)
University of Sheffield [Sheffield]
Department of Life Science
Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH)
Institute of Industrial Science
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)
Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Department of Geosciences
Source :
Earth System dynamics, 6, 447-460, Earth System dynamics 6 (2015), Earth System Dynamics, Earth System Dynamics, 2015, 6 (2), pp.447-460. ⟨10.5194/esd-6-447-2015⟩, Earth System Dynamics, European Geosciences Union, 2015, 6 (2), pp.447-460. ⟨10.5194/esd-6-447-2015⟩, Earth System Dynamics, Vol 6, Iss 2, Pp 447-460 (2015), Earth System Dynamics, 6 (2), 447-460, Earth System Dynamics, 6(2), 447. Copernicus GmbH
Publication Year :
2015
Publisher :
Copernicus GmbH, 2015.

Abstract

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.

Details

ISSN :
21904987 and 21904979
Volume :
6
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Earth System Dynamics
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....d369ebefbc211635dee989a8a68f46d6
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015